Abstract

Syria’s agricultural sector has not experienced a cyclical downturn but a systemic collapse, driven by the convergence of protracted conflict, accelerating hydrological depletion, and an ecologically unsustainable pre-war development model. This paper argues that post-conflict agricultural reconstruction must be reconceptualized as regeneration, shifting from a paradigm of restoring pre-war extractive systems towards a framework of food sovereignty that maximizes value per unit of water. Drawing on a qualitative, case-study-driven policy analysis of twelve countries and the latest 2025-2026 empirical data from FAO, WFP, ICARDA, and peer-reviewed sources, this paper proposes an integrated governance and finance framework for transforming Syria’s agricultural system.
A novel Feasibility Matrix models institutional thresholds and political reversal risks for each proposed reform, and the paper explicitly analyses the conditions under which the strategy would fail, including governance collapse, sanctions reimposition, armed relapse, climate shocks beyond projections, fiscal crisis, and carbon market collapse. The paper concludes that Syria possesses the farmers, scientific institutions-notably ICARDA’s preserved 143,000 seed accessions-and diaspora capital necessary for transformative recovery. What has been absent is institutional architecture. This paper provides that architecture through a coherent, actionable framework for rebuilding Syria’s agriculture not as it was, but as it must become.

Keywords:Syria; Agricultural collapse; Climate resilience; Groundwater governance; Food sovereignty; Conservation agriculture; Seed sovereignty; Climate finance; Post-conflict reconstruction; Adaptive governance