Abstract

Climate finance is intended to strengthen adaptation among vulnerable smallholders, yet major gaps remain between global pledges and local access across the Sahel. This study examines how climate finance access, institutional barriers, and bottom-up resilience practices interact to shape smallholder resilience in Tokombéré commune, Cameroon, a Sahelian case. Using a sequential mixed-methods design, the study combined 225 household surveys, 20 semi-structured interviews, Landsat-based GIS analysis, and 15 policy and budget documents. The analysis tested a polycentric finance-access-resilience framework by comparing top-down and bottom-up pathways, estimating mediation effects, and constructing a baseline resilience index using principal component analysis.

The results show a marked difference in access: top-down finance pathways recorded much lower access than bottom-up pathways (A=0.18 versus A=0.62, t=5.2, p<0.001). Institutional barriers mediated 38-42% of the finance-to-resilience relationship, indicating that access constraints substantially weaken the effectiveness of finance inflows. The resilience index showed moderate baseline resilience (R=0.41), with 68% of variance explained, and improved under bottom-up practices (adjusted R²=0.52). Sankey analysis further showed severe leakage in PNACC channels, with only 8% reaching farms directly, compared with 68% retention through producer organizations. Hybrid pathways produced a 21% resilience gain and appear to offer the strongest potential for scaling adaptation outcomes.

This study contributes by quantifying mediation effects, comparing bottom-up and hybrid pathways, and identifying terrain and gender as important socio-spatial moderators. Its practical significance lies in showing that climate finance effectiveness depends less on volume alone than on access architecture, with implications for redesigning PNACC implementation, strengthening producer organizations, and improving retention of adaptation resources. The findings also suggest that a 30% reallocation of GCF Phase 7 support through hybrid channels could unlock substantial adaptation benefits across the Sahel, although causal claims remain limited by the cross-sectional design.

Keywords:Climate finance; Smallholder resilience; Sahel; Polycentric governance; Access barriers; Agroecology; FMNR; Mixed methods; Cameroon