Abstract

Three nominal solar cycles of 1000, 70 and 11 years control the increasing annual temperatures of the Earth measured since 1850. The model that closely fits these measured Earth temperatures is the Solar Cycle Model (SCM). The SCM is the culmination of prior work [1,2] to quantify information presented by Singer & Avery [3] in their provocative book UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING-Every 1,500 years. The authors discuss seven diverse scientific studies ranging from ice cores to fossilized pollen [4] that all demonstrate effective thermal cycles from hot to cold every nominal 1,500 years (1,500 yrs.±500 yrs.). The SCM also models the Earth’s past, historically documented temperature epochs. The SCM is an alternative to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) AR5 [5] and AR6 [6] models which consider human-caused greenhouse gas accumulation into the upper atmosphere as the primary cause of this warming. The UNIPCC models do not accurately model measured Earth temperatures and more recent models may be even less trustworthy [7]. Both the SCM and UNIPCC models predict that Earth temperatures currently will continue increasing. SCM predicts that Earth temperatures will increase a total of 1.75deg. C. from 1850 until the year 2232 when maximum temperature will be 15.39deg. C. which afterward will decline toward the next little ice age. The UNIPCC model predicts increasing temperatures until greenhouse gases stabilize with added gases exactly balancing removed gases (net zero). Earth temperature would then remain at the last level unless total greenhouse gasses decrease, or other changes are made to reduce net solar irradiation arriving at the Earth’s surface. The SCM uses measured Earth temperatures from 1850 to 2020 as its input data and therefore any greenhouse gas effects over that time span are already present within the model. The SCM model found that measured Earth temperatures themselves exhibit a 73-year secondary solar cycle in addition to a primary 1,071 year solar cycle that fits the timing of prior historical temperature epochs like the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming. A third solar cycle of 11 years was incorporated to clarify understanding of several Earth Science correlations as they relate to the SCM. After the SCM was completed it was found to agree quite closely with Earth Science correlations including Sunspots, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Power Dissipation Index, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trends in these data sets are mirrored very closely by the SCM. The SCM predicts that La Niña in the Southern Pacific Ocean will dominate 60% of the time during the next two decades and Atlantic hurricanes will be less energetic while all the other correlations studied will decline for the next two decades. Currently increasing temperatures on Earth are part of its natural temperature cycle that has been occurring for as long as the last 15,000 years.

Keywords:Climate modeling; Solar cycles; Earth temperatures; Global warming; Climate change; Hurricane strength