Abstract

For the vast majority of countries, effective control over COVID-19 incidence without mass vaccination is not possible. More than 100 research centers are successfully developing and testing the vaccine; mass vaccination can be expected from early 2021. The article describes how to evaluate the activity of the transmission mechanism and the necessary level of collective immune status, created by vaccination, taking into account the “seasonal factor” and collective immunity received from diseases of coronavirus infection. In particular, for Moscow the minimum proportion of the population that needs to become immune is currently 48.7%, if inoculated without serological control, and 36.5% if inoculation receive those who have no immunity.

Keywords: COVID-19; Effect of vaccination against COVID-19; Mathematical model.