Advancing Risk-Informed Decision-Making in Mineral Extraction: A Pan-European Framework Bridging Resilience and Innovation

Modern mining is no longer merely an engineering pursuit but a complex geopolitical, environmental, and societal challenge. As the European Union faces unprecedented pressures to ensure the availability and sustainability of Critical Raw Materials (CRMs)-such as rare earth elements, lithium, and cobalt-needed for the energy transition, digital transformation, and strategic autonomy, the vulnerability of its industrial backbone has become starkly evident. Global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability have exposed the limits of conventional governance models, which are often reactive and fragmented. Addressing these multi-dimensional challenges demands a shift toward a resilient, adaptive, and ethically grounded framework for raw materials governance.

Within this evolving landscape, the IRMHUB project (Interregional circular and green Raw Materials supply innovation HUBs to achieve EU resilience in less developed and transition regions specialized in critical industrial value chains) emerges as a pioneering EU-funded initiative that catalyzes a new governance paradigm. Rather than treating sustainability and resilience as separate goals, IRMHUB integrates them into a unified strategy of risk-informed innovation. The project establishes a community-driven innovation hub focused on intelligent risk management for CRMs, embedding foresight, participatory digital tools, and dynamic risk diagnostics into decision-making processes. This enables less developed and transition regions to become active contributors to European resilience, rather than passive beneficiaries. IRMHUB’s approach reframes the transformation of mining and mineral processing as both a technical mandate and a socio-political imperative. It emphasizes circularity, transparency, and regional empowerment, ensuring that technological advances align with societal expectations and regulatory evolution. Ultimately, this model lays the groundwork for future-proofing Europe’s raw materials sector-by fostering ecosystems that are inclusive, risk-aware, and capable of withstanding the cascading effects of climate volatility, geopolitical shocks, and infrastructural stressors.

The European Union’s persistent dependency on external sources for Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) has evolved into a strategic vulnerability, further exposed by the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and deepened by the geopolitical instability triggered by the war in Ukraine. Currently, the EU relies on imports for over 80% of its CRMs-materials vital for high-tech, defense, green energy, and digital sectors. Many of these imports originate from politically volatile regions or are dominated by countries with near-monopolistic market control, which significantly undermines the EU’s industrial autonomy and technological sovereignty. This external dependency poses direct threats to essential strategic value chains, particularly in battery manufacturing, renewable energy technologies, aerospace, and defense systems. While the European Commission has acknowledged these challenges through initiatives such as the Raw Materials Initiative and the Action Plan on Critical Raw Materials, these frameworks remain largely aspirational. The existing policies lack enforceable implementation tools, robust monitoring mechanisms, and crosssectoral coordination necessary to mitigate long-term supply risks. To address this growing strategic gap, Europe must urgently transition from reactive policy responses to a proactive governance model grounded in risk-informed decision-making. This includes embedding systemic risk assessment and resilience planning into raw materials governance, promoting circular economy principles, and fostering domestic innovation and extraction capabilities. Strengthening these pillars will be essential not only for safeguarding industrial competitiveness but also for enhancing Europe’s geopolitical leverage and environmental responsibility in the raw materials sector.

In an era of accelerating uncertainty, strategic foresight emerges not merely as a policy tool but as a foundational principle of resilient raw materials governance. Within the context of the European raw materials ecosystem, foresight enables stakeholders to move beyond linear projections and short-term contingency planning, fostering an anticipatory mindset that integrates complexity, interdependence, and disruptive potential. This entails a multidimensional analysis of emerging risks-ranging from geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain concentration to climate-induced disruptions and evolving societal expectations around environmental justice. The IRMHUB initiative positions anticipatory governance as a transformative step away from legacy models of reactive risk mitigation. It promotes the institutionalization of scenario-building exercises that are cross-sectoral and dynamic, capturing both short-term shocks and long-horizon structural shifts. These scenarios must integrate diverse variables-such as mineral diplomacy trends, strategic stockpiling behaviors, climate transition pathways, and evolving ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) frameworksto inform resilient policy design and industrial strategy.

Risk anticipation also requires the continuous monitoring of critical weak signals and early warning indicators, including abrupt regulatory changes, shifts in consumer behavior, disruptive technological breakthroughs, and patterns of civil resistance to extraction activities. The challenge lies in converting these fragmented signals into actionable intelligence. This necessitates the cultivation of advanced analytics capabilities that combine qualitative foresight methodologies (e.g., Delphi panels, horizon scanning, backcasting) with quantitative tools such as probabilistic risk modeling and systems dynamics simulations.

To this end, capacity-building within European institutions is imperative. Governments, research institutions, and industrial alliances must develop embedded foresight units capable of delivering timely, integrated, and reflexive assessments. By institutionalizing strategic foresight and embedding it into the full policy lifecycle-from design and funding allocation to monitoring and evaluation-Europe can significantly enhance its agility, resilience, and long-term strategic autonomy in raw materials governance.

Establishing a resilient governance architecture for raw materials in Europe necessitates a shift from fragmented policy responses to a systemic, integrated framework that balances economic, environmental, and social imperatives. A truly holistic framework must embed regulatory coherence, multi-level stakeholder engagement, and adaptive institutional capabilities capable of responding to emergent risks.

Central to this vision is the harmonization of legal and regulatory instruments across EU Member States, particularly in streamlining permitting and compliance procedures without diluting sustainability safeguards. This includes standardized environmental and social impact assessment methodologies that not only account for immediate ecological footprints but also transboundary, cumulative, and long-term effects on biodiversity and human health.

Another foundational pillar involves embedding circular economy principles directly into the extractive value chain through fiscal incentives, green procurement mandates, and lifecycle resource assessments. Financial instruments should reward innovation in waste valorization, urban mining, and closed-loop production. Human capital development is equally vital. The persistent skills gap in mineral processing, risk modeling, and ESG-oriented project management must be addressed through interdisciplinary training programs and university-industry partnerships.

Finally, the framework should operationalize real-time intelligence through digital monitoring systems, enabling responsive governance. This involves the creation of multi-actor platforms that bridge public administrations, industry, civil society, and academiaensuring transparent, accountable, and inclusive decision-making. The IRMHUB initiative exemplifies such an approach by promoting collaborative policy labs, shared risk assessment tools, and governance benchmarking indicators to drive convergence across EU strategies and bolster Europe’s strategic autonomy in critical raw materials. Technological innovation and digitalization are not mere enablers but foundational drivers of resilience in raw materials governance. The convergence of advanced technologies with datacentric strategies holds the key to optimizing extraction processes, improving traceability, and anticipating systemic disruptions. Innovation must be integrated into every layer of the raw materials value chain-from exploration and extraction to post-processing and logistics. Tools such as remote sensing, AI-powered predictive maintenance, and geospatial analytics significantly enhance situational awareness and environmental compliance monitoring, thereby minimizing ecological damage and occupational hazards.

Digital twins-virtual representations of physical mining systems-enable scenario simulations under varying stress conditions, helping decision-makers assess risk with greater precision. Simultaneously, blockchain technologies ensure endto- end transparency and integrity of supply chains, reducing vulnerability to fraud, illegal sourcing, or geopolitical shocks. IRMHUB’s emphasis on dynamic digital infrastructures illustrates a paradigm shift toward anticipatory governance. Through its deployment of real-time dashboards and modeling interfaces, it facilitates rapid visualization of critical dependencies, supply chain bottlenecks, and cascading failures-transforming reactive systems into proactive, evidence-based strategies. Crucially, data democratization plays a pivotal role. Open-access data platforms and interoperable standards empower distributed intelligence and collaborative foresight across sectors. This participatory data governance is essential to building trust among stakeholders, accelerating innovation diffusion, and ensuring equitable access to risk knowledge. In sum, embedding innovation and data governance into the strategic fabric of Europe’s raw materials sector enhances resilience, fosters operational efficiency, and positions the EU as a leader in sustainable and secure resource management.

Robust and resilient governance in the raw materials sector cannot be achieved without meaningful and continuous engagement from a wide spectrum of stakeholders. The complexities surrounding mining operations-ranging from environmental degradation and social conflict to geopolitical concerns-necessitate participatory models of governance that reflect diverse perspectives and values. In this context, stakeholder engagement must transcend perfunctory consultation and evolve into structured co-decisionmaking processes. Mechanisms such as participatory scenario development, citizen assemblies, deliberative dialogues, and multisectoral advisory councils allow for the co-creation of knowledge and shared understanding of risk. These processes are vital for fostering institutional trust and enhancing the social license to operate. Particular emphasis should be placed on the inclusion of marginalized or underrepresented groups-such as Indigenous peoples, youth, and women-whose voices are often excluded from formal governance processes despite being disproportionately affected by mining activities. Their participation not only enriches governance outcomes but also strengthens legitimacy and ensures intergenerational justice.

Moreover, multi-stakeholder dialogue can improve alignment between scientific risk assessments and community-based perceptions of harm, reducing the likelihood of social resistance or litigation. Early engagement also facilitates the anticipation of societal concerns, enhancing responsiveness and adaptive capacity. Projects like IRMHUB demonstrate that integrative stakeholder platforms contribute significantly to collaborative foresight, improved data transparency, and strategic alignment between public institutions, industry, and civil society-critical elements in building Europe’s long-term resilience in raw materials governance. The European Green Deal (EGD), alongside the REPowerEU and Fit-for-55 packages, outlines a visionary trajectory toward climate neutrality and energy sovereignty. However, to achieve systemic transformation, the raw materials governance architecture must be coherently aligned with these overarching policy frameworks.

Presently, critical raw materials (CRMs) policy is fragmented across sectors-energy, environment, trade, and industry-resulting in regulatory mismatches and inefficiencies. Bridging these divides requires a meta-governance approach that ensures horizontal integration and vertical policy coherence across EU institutions and Member States. The Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) represents an important step, but must be equipped with enforceable mechanisms, measurable benchmarks, and financial tools that are consistent with the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy. Moreover, the Just Transition Mechanism and Cohesion Funds should be mobilized to support regions undergoing socio-economic disruption due to mine closures or technological displacement. Investments should be directed toward upskilling programs, green industrial diversification, and community reintegration initiatives. Externally, raw materials policy should be aligned with the EU’s Global Gateway strategy and the Africa-EU Partnership to promote ethical sourcing, technology transfer, and value chain localization. This geopolitical dimension is vital to reduce dependency on unstable supply regions and foster global environmental and social governance norms.

Ultimately, integrated policy ecosystems are essential for realizing the dual ambition of resource resilience and climate neutrality. Synergies between raw materials governance and the Green Deal must be institutionalized, not incidental, if Europe is to maintain strategic autonomy while upholding its sustainability commitments. While the pursuit of a resilient, risk-informed governance model for raw materials is both timely and necessary, several systemic challenges remain. One of the most pressing issues is the persistence of asymmetries in access to critical data between stakeholders-particularly between regulatory bodies, industry actors, and civil society. Such disparities impede evidencebased decision-making, weaken public oversight, and limit the effectiveness of collaborative risk assessment. Transparency, though widely recognized as a cornerstone of good governance, often meets resistance due to commercial sensitivities or political inertia. Moreover, the level of investment in risk education-both for technical professionals and community stakeholders-remains insufficient, leading to significant capacity gaps in anticipating, communicating, and responding to complex risk scenarios. Ethical considerations must also be placed at the center of raw materials governance. Mining operations, especially in third countries, raise fundamental human rights concerns, including labor exploitation, displacement of local populations, and environmental degradation. These concerns are further exacerbated by the long-term ecological footprint of extractive activities, raising questions of intergenerational equity and climate justice.

Future trajectories should prioritize the development of ethical AI frameworks that guide the responsible application of machine learning and predictive analytics in mining risk management. Integrating biodiversity offsetting mechanisms into licensing procedures would help internalize environmental costs and enhance accountability. Equally crucial is the establishment of an independent EU-wide Raw Materials Risk Observatory to monitor, evaluate, and publicly communicate emerging risks in real time. Finally, alignment of national strategies under the coordination of the European Critical Raw Materials Board will be essential to ensure coherent, transnational implementation. This coordination must be supported by harmonized metrics, transparent reporting standards, and cross-border institutional learning. Only through such integrative and ethically grounded approaches can Europe ensure that resilience does not come at the cost of justice and longterm sustainability. The transition toward a resilient and sovereign raw materials strategy in Europe hinges on the integration of risk-informed governance, technological innovation, and multilevel stakeholder collaboration. As global supply chains become increasingly volatile due to geopolitical, environmental, and economic disruptions, the capacity to anticipate and mitigate systemic risks is no longer optional-it is foundational to industrial competitiveness, environmental sustainability, and democratic legitimacy.

This opinion paper has articulated the imperative for a comprehensive European framework that embraces strategic foresight, digitalization, ethical safeguards, and policy coherence. The IRMHUB project exemplifies a shift from reactive management to anticipatory governance, combining scenario-based modeling, participatory design, and cross-sectoral coordination. Embedding these principles within the policy architecture of the European Green Deal and the Critical Raw Materials Act will enable more adaptive, inclusive, and ethically sound approaches to resource extraction and processing. Ultimately, securing Europe’s raw materials future demands more than criticality lists and permitting reforms. It requires a cultural shift in governance-from siloed compliance to dynamic systems thinking; from short-term extraction to long-term resilience; and from fragmented national strategies to unified European action. By aligning risk management with innovation, transparency, and social legitimacy, the EU can set a global benchmark in sustainable mineral governance-one that balances competitiveness with care, and sovereignty with solidarity.