Abstract

Agricultural production in Niger State like other states in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to climate changeability. Climate change is predicted to have adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the poorer parts of the world especially sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of the study is to investigate and analyse the effect of rainfall trend on the production of yam in Mokwa local government area of Niger state, Nigeria. For the purpose of this research, data were collected from 100 respondents through the administration of questionnaires. Rainfall data covering a period of thirteen years (2003-2015) were also obtained from College of Agriculture Mokwa weather station, while the yearly yam yield for 16 years (2000-2015) was obtained from Niger State Ministry of Agriculture. Linear regression models and standardized anomaly index were used to analysis the data gathered. The study showed that the trend of mean annual rainfall in the study area was minimal but significant with R² value of 0.8 for mean monthly rainfall. A strong relationship between rainfall variation and yam yield exist with r² value of 0.881. The variation in the yield among the years was moderately significant with R² value of 0.5064. It also showed a positive response between yam yield and moderate rainfall that was well distributed. Extension agent from ministries of agriculture and ADPs should do more in harnessing relevant information on food production in all the local government areas of Niger state so as to build a robust data bank for further research.

Keywords: Climate change; Variability; Analysis; Scandalized anomaly index