Abstract

Selection of donor heart-an important step, which affects the success of heart transplantation. Purpose- creating a model for evaluation of a donor’s heart, based on donor characteristics.

Materials and Methods

Data consists of 650 brain dead donors (BDD) in a period from 1st of January 2012 till 31st of December 2017. In model creation, binomial logistic regression used. The dependent variable is a rejection of donor heart and donor characteristics attributed to independent factors. The odds ratios (OR) value determined for each factor, then transformed into points, and the sum of the points is a score of the donor’s heart. The given model is validated by choosing 218 donors for the period from 1st of January 2019 till 31st of December 2019.

Results

Donors characteristics included in the model are age, cause of death (Traumatic brain injury/Stroke), history of Hypertension and Diabetes Mellitus, out (-in) hospital cardiac arrest, cardiac trauma, and HR, MAP, arterial lactate, requirements of norepinephrine before procurement of organs. Based on the average value of the sum of points, 2 groups were identified: donors of low risk (≤17 points) and donors of high risk (≥18 points). Analysis of the ROC curve showed the properties of the predictive model, AUC- 0.904, sensitivity-90.2 %, specificity-90.4 %.

Conclusion

This given model assessing donor hearts accurately reflects the probability of using the heart of the donor for transplantation and forms features for optimal distribution of cardiac transplants, especially from donors of high risk.

Keywords: Model assessment of the heart donor; Donor risk factors for a heart transplant

Abbreviations: OR: Odds Ratio; TBI: Traumatic Brain Injury; HR: Heart Rate; MAP: Mean Arterial Pressure’s; DLR: The Donor is at Low Risk; DHR: The Donor is at High Risk; ROC Curve: Receiver Operating Characteristic; AUC: Area Under the ROC Curve